Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Monday, July 6, 2026
Top home runs spot: Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Miles Mikolas. The lefty is going deep on .073 HR/PA against righties this year — and .098 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 6% of his trips. And Miles Mikolas has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Miles Mikolas, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Juan Soto (NYM) (93) vs RHP Reynaldo López: big-time bat at .061 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (92) vs LHP Noah Cameron: elite bat at .065 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (84) vs RHP Cam Schlittler: elite bat at .070 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.111).
- Ben Rice (NYY) (78) vs RHP Griffin Jax: big-time bat at .059 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.036).
- Rafael Devers (SF) (75) vs RHP Kevin Gausman: big-time bat at .055 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.030), hot bat.
- James Wood (WSH) (72) vs RHP Mike Burrows: real bat at .046 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.043).
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (70) vs LHP Eric Lauer: big-time bat at .054 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.024).
Platoon edges to target
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .073 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .072 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .076 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .053 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .058 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
144 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.