Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Sunday, July 5, 2026
Top home runs spot: Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Luinder Avila. The lefty is going deep on .086 HR/PA against righties this year — and .094 over the last two weeks, elite bat that turns into a home run in about 7% of his trips. And Luinder Avila has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 1 career PA against Luinder Avila, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (100) vs RHP Eury Pérez: big-time bat at .058 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.053).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (95) vs RHP the starter: big-time bat at .058 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Junior Caminero (TB) (89) vs RHP Peter Lambert: elite bat at .069 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.095).
- Rafael Devers (SF) (87) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: big-time bat at .056 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Ben Rice (NYY) (83) vs RHP Joe Ryan: big-time bat at .060 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.040).
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (82) vs RHP Luinder Avila: big-time bat at .060 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (80) vs RHP Tyler Mahle: elite bat at .066 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .086 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .054 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .054 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .078 against righties this year.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .075 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.