Who has the best home runs matchup today (Saturday, July 4, 2026)?

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Wacha. Elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB home runs matchups today (Saturday, July 4, 2026)?

The top home runs matchups on Saturday, July 4, 2026: Kyle Schwarber (100), Nick Kurtz (100), Ben Rice (95), Byron Buxton (88), Yordan Alvarez (73). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by home runs upside.

Did the top home runs matchup get a home run on Saturday, July 4, 2026?

No — Kyle Schwarber didn't record a home run.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .086 against righties this year. Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .054 against righties this year. Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .078 against righties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .067 against righties this year. Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .075 against righties this year.

How is the home runs matchup score calculated?

It starts with his home-run rate per trip against that hand, weighted to recent form, then a two-year baseline so a hot fortnight doesn't run away with it. Then the arm's fly-ball tendencies, the bullpen, and the park and wind. Scores run 0–100 across the slate.

What does HR/PA mean?

It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end in a home run. Around .030 (3%) is league average. Elite power runs .065+. We measure it per trip to the plate, which is what a daily matchup comes down to.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. But read this board knowing home runs are the rarest thing on the site: a 95 is a great spot, not a likely event. It ranks today's spots against each other — nobody's projected to go deep more often than not.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a home run.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Power splits are sharper than contact splits. A lefty bat vs. a righty arm gets the pull-side dimensions and the breaking ball spinning into the barrel instead of away from it — that's the platoon split doing its loudest work. Same hitter, same swing, very different odds of one leaving.

What are park factors?

This is the board where the yard matters most. Dimensions, altitude, and a warm wind out can swing a fly ball from a track-out to a souvenir. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — the same bat grades higher in Denver than in Detroit, and it should.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a home run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for home runs props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ home run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Home runs are rare enough that the honest measure is rate over a season, not a week — the top of this board goes deep meaningfully more often than the slate, and you can check any past date to see it.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB home runs matchups — Saturday, July 4, 2026

Every slugger on the Saturday, July 4, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to hit a home run. Results show how each call played out.

Get notified on every DINGER today. Distance, exit velo, and launch angle the moment anyone goes yard — turn on live HR alerts.

How the model did — Saturday, July 4, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 1/5 (20%) on 1+ home run, against 22% on the season.

Top 5

1/520%

season 22%

Top 10

4/1040%

season 22%

Full slate

41/26615%

season 11%

Top call Yordan Alvarez came through. Kyle Schwarber didn't.

Each slugger below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average slugger in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 7–1

PITaway

WSHhomeTop matchup71 Final · 11–4

MINaway

NYYhomeTop matchup95 Final · 3–0

DETaway

TEXhomeTop matchup58 Final · 0–11

TORaway

SEAhomeTop matchup53 Final · 8–5

BALaway

CINhomeTop matchup61 Final · 8–10

TBaway

HOUhomeTop matchup73 Final · 3–1

CWSaway

CLEhomeTop matchup36 Final · 3–0

STLaway

CHChomeTop matchup47 Final · 3–14

NYMaway

ATLhomeTop matchup43 Final · 6–4

SFaway

COLhomeTop matchup62 Final · 6–1

PHIaway

KChomeTop matchup100 Final · 8–1

BOSaway

LAAhomeTop matchup36 Final · 7–2

MIAaway

ATHhomeTop matchup100 Final · 3–4

MILaway

AZhomeTop matchup47 Final · 0–3

SDaway

LADhomeTop matchup45

Not starting57 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 323 shownScore

43 with a HRMost recent first — newest homer up top

1
Jackson ChourioLF
MIL@AZ· 1-for-2
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR
2
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsSD· 2-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #99
3
Mike YastrzemskiLF
ATLvsNYM· 2-for-2
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR
4
Kyle Stowers1B
MIA@ATH· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.3 HR, #14
5
Christian YelichDH
MIL@AZ· 1-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #79
6
Joe MackC
MIA@ATH· 2-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #135
7
Adrian Del CastilloDH
AZvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #171
8
Otto LopezSS
MIA@ATH· 3-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #180
9
Romy GonzalezDH
BOS@LAA· 1-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #52
10
Willson Contreras1B
BOS@LAA· 1-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #56
11
Josh LoweLF
LAAvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #109
12
JJ Wetherholt2B
STL@CHC· 3-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #176
13
Mark Vientos1B
NYM@ATL· 2-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #114
14
Eli WhiteRF
ATLvsNYM· 2-for-2
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #115
15
Tyrone TaylorLF
NYM@ATL· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #155
16
Michael Harris IICF
ATLvsNYM· 3-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #166
17
Austin Riley3B
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #172
18
Mauricio DubónLF
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #200
19
J.T. RealmutoC
PHI@KC· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #125
20
Gabriel Rincones Jr.RF
PHI@KC· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #130
21
Alec Bohm3B
PHI@KC· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #204
22
Cole CarriggCF
COLvsSF· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #94
23
Bryce EldridgeDH
SF@COL· 2-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #147
24
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsTB· 3-for-4
2HRFinal
Proj 0.4 HR, #5
25
Junior Caminero3B
TB@HOU· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.4 HR, #8
26
Richie Palacios2B
TB@HOU· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #160
27
Yainer DiazC
HOUvsTB· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #201
28
Jonny DeLucaRF
TB@HOU· 2-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #215
29
Samuel BasalloC
BAL@CIN· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #37
30
Colson MontgomerySS
CWS@CLE· 2-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #65
31
Austin HedgesC
CLEvsCWS· 2-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #237
32
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEAvsTOR· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.3 HR, #18
33
Cal RaleighC
SEAvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #31
34
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEAvsTOR· 3-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #87
35
Riley GreeneLF
DET@TEX· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.3 HR, #20
36
Josh BellDH
MIN@NYY· 3-for-5
2HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #30
37
Kody Clemens1B
MIN@NYY· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.3 HR, #9
38
Jasson DomínguezRF
NYYvsMIN· 2-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #71
39
Trevor LarnachLF
MIN@NYY· 2-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #105
40
Alex JacksonC
MIN@NYY· 1-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #218
41
Max SchuemannLF
NYYvsMIN· 2-for-2
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #231
42
Luke Keaschall2B
MIN@NYY· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #235
43
James WoodRF
WSHvsPIT· 1-for-2
1HRFinal
Proj 0.3 HR, #10

Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Saturday, July 4, 2026

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) is the top home runs matchup on the Saturday, July 4, 2026 board at 100, with Nick Kurtz (ATH) and Ben Rice (NYY) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to hit a home run — power, the park, handedness splits, and how this arm gives up the long ball. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top home runs spot: Kyle Schwarber

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Wacha. The lefty is going deep on .086 HR/PA against righties this year — and .094 over the last two weeks, elite bat that turns into a home run in about 7% of his trips. And Michael Wacha has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .261 in 23 career PA against Michael Wacha. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Nick Kurtz (ATH) (100) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: big-time bat at .058 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Ben Rice (NYY) (95) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: big-time bat at .060 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.080).
Byron Buxton (MIN) (88) vs RHP Brendan Beck: elite bat at .070 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (73) vs RHP Drew Rasmussen: big-time bat at .054 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Bryce Harper (PHI) (72) vs RHP Michael Wacha: big-time bat at .060 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Luis García Jr. (WSH) (71) vs RHP Braxton Ashcraft: big-time bat at .059 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.061), hot bat.
Junior Caminero (TB) (70) vs RHP Hunter Brown: elite bat at .069 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.056).

Platoon edges to target

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .086 against righties this year.
Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .054 against righties this year.
Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .078 against righties this year.
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .067 against righties this year.
Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .075 against righties this year.

How it played out

4 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Kyle Schwarber finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these home runs matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the home runs board is

The Home Runs board projects the chance a hitter goes deep, park and matchup baked in. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's power vs the pitcher's hand.
The park's home-run environment and the wind.
How hard and how often he hits it in the air.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Home runs is one of the most efficiently priced props in the sport — every config we've backtested loses to the line, and our disagreements point away from the book's mistakes, not toward them. So HR is a transparency board: our projection, graded, no play attached. The honest read is the book is simply sharper here.

How to use it

Read it for who's in a live spot to run into one — but don't bet our number against the line; there's no edge to press.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best home runs matchup today (Saturday, July 4, 2026)?: Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Wacha. Elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB home runs matchups today (Saturday, July 4, 2026)?: The top home runs matchups on Saturday, July 4, 2026: Kyle Schwarber (100), Nick Kurtz (100), Ben Rice (95), Byron Buxton (88), Yordan Alvarez (73). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by home runs upside.
Did the top home runs matchup get a home run on Saturday, July 4, 2026?: No — Kyle Schwarber didn't record a home run.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .086 against righties this year. Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .054 against righties this year. Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .078 against righties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .067 against righties this year. Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .075 against righties this year.
How is the home runs matchup score calculated?: It starts with his home-run rate per trip against that hand, weighted to recent form, then a two-year baseline so a hot fortnight doesn't run away with it. Then the arm's fly-ball tendencies, the bullpen, and the park and wind. Scores run 0–100 across the slate.
What does HR/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end in a home run. Around .030 (3%) is league average. Elite power runs .065+. We measure it per trip to the plate, which is what a daily matchup comes down to.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. But read this board knowing home runs are the rarest thing on the site: a 95 is a great spot, not a likely event. It ranks today's spots against each other — nobody's projected to go deep more often than not.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a home run.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Power splits are sharper than contact splits. A lefty bat vs. a righty arm gets the pull-side dimensions and the breaking ball spinning into the barrel instead of away from it — that's the platoon split doing its loudest work. Same hitter, same swing, very different odds of one leaving.
What are park factors?: This is the board where the yard matters most. Dimensions, altitude, and a warm wind out can swing a fly ball from a track-out to a souvenir. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — the same bat grades higher in Denver than in Detroit, and it should.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a home run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for home runs props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ home run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Home runs are rare enough that the honest measure is rate over a season, not a week — the top of this board goes deep meaningfully more often than the slate, and you can check any past date to see it.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.