Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Saturday, July 4, 2026
Top home runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Griffin Canning. The lefty is going deep on .046 HR/PA against righties this year — and .059 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 6% of his trips. And Griffin Canning has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .182 in 11 career PA against Griffin Canning, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (87) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: big-time bat at .056 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (81) vs RHP Drew Rasmussen: big-time bat at .053 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Rafael Devers (SF) (80) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: big-time bat at .054 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.094), hot bat.
- Junior Caminero (TB) (80) vs RHP Hunter Brown: elite bat at .069 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.056).
- Ben Rice (NYY) (76) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: big-time bat at .058 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.080).
- Nelson Velázquez (STL) (73) vs LHP Shota Imanaga: big-time bat at .053 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.059), due to bounce back.
- James Wood (WSH) (66) vs RHP Braxton Ashcraft: real bat at .044 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.061), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .046 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .052 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .064 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .050 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .074 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.