Best MLB Hits Matchups — Saturday, April 4, 2026
Top hits spot: Brice Turang
Brice Turang (MIL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Seth Lugo. The lefty is hitting .389 H/PA against righties this year — and .389 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 28% of his trips. And Seth Lugo has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .313 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .250 in 8 career PA against Seth Lugo. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (99) vs RHP Shane Baz: an excellent bat at .284 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.462).
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (94) vs RHP Mick Abel: an excellent bat at .286 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.385).
- Tyler Freeman (COL) (90) vs LHP Jesús Luzardo: a strong bat at .253 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.263), hitter's park.
- Austin Wynns (ATH) (88) vs RHP Tatsuya Imai: an excellent bat at .275 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333).
- Daylen Lile (WSH) (85) vs RHP Tyler Glasnow: an excellent bat at .282 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.222), hot bat.
- Andy Pages (LAD) (85) vs RHP Jake Irvin: an elite bat at .317 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.222).
- Matt Olson (ATL) (84) vs RHP Michael Soroka: a strong bat at .260 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.364), hot bat.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Dustin May has been getting tattooed by righties — .295 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Matt Vierling (DET), Kevin McGonigle (DET), and Gleyber Torres (DET).
- RHP Shane Baz has been vulnerable to righties — .278 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Brandon Lowe (PIT), Ryan O'Hearn (PIT), and Oneil Cruz (PIT).
- RHP Mick Abel has been vulnerable to righties — .271 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Yandy Díaz (TB), Jonathan Aranda (TB), and Jake Fraley (TB).
- RHP Jack Kochanowicz has been vulnerable to righties — .260 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luke Raley (SEA), Cal Raleigh (SEA), and Rob Refsnyder (SEA).
Platoon edges to target
- Brice Turang (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .389 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .438 against righties this year.
- Tyler Freeman (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, 1.000 against lefties this year.
- Daylen Lile (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .364 against righties this year.
- Matt Olson (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .318 against righties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Tyler Freeman (COL) at 90.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Brice Turang (MIL), Daylen Lile (WSH), Matt Olson (ATL), Taylor Ward (BAL), Brice Turang (MIL), and Drake Baldwin (ATL). Cold but due to bounce back: Hunter Goodman (COL), Jonathan Aranda (TB), Jakob Marsee (MIA), Corbin Carroll (AZ), and Mike Trout (LAA).
How it played out
5 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Brice Turang finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.