Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Thursday, July 9, 2026
Top rbis spot: Cole Carrigg
Cole Carrigg (COL) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Carson Whisenhunt. The righty is driving in runs at .213 RBI/PA against lefties this year — and .304 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a RBI in about 17% of his trips. And Carson Whisenhunt has been thin against lefties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Carson Whisenhunt. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (100) vs RHP Bryce Elder: an elite bat at .173 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.455), hot bat.
- Vaughn Grissom (LAA) (95) vs RHP Nathan Eovaldi: an elite bat at .182 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.100).
- Jake Burger (TEX) (93) vs LHP Reid Detmers: an elite bat at .173 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.139).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (92) vs RHP Paul Blackburn: an elite bat at .166 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (91) vs RHP Brady Singer: an excellent bat at .157 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.222).
- Romy Gonzalez (BOS) (90) vs LHP Anthony Kay: an elite bat at .167 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.143), hot bat.
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) (88) vs LHP Framber Valdez: an elite bat at .162 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.192).
Platoon edges to target
- Cole Carrigg (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .213 against lefties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .199 against righties this year.
- Jake Burger (TEX) — righty bat vs LHP, .184 against lefties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .135 against righties this year.
- Romy Gonzalez (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, .278 against lefties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 rbis matchups landed at least one RBI. Top play Cole Carrigg finished with 0 RBIs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays