Best MLB Runs Matchups — Wednesday, July 8, 2026
Top runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Gabriel Hughes. The lefty is scoring at .164 R/PA against righties this year — and .143 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 15% of his trips. And Gabriel Hughes has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Gabriel Hughes. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) (98) vs RHP Jared Jones: a strong bat at .141 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.095), hot bat.
- Michael Harris II (ATL) (91) vs RHP Jared Jones: a solid bat at .120 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.095), hot bat.
- Matt Olson (ATL) (89) vs RHP Jared Jones: a strong bat at .137 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.095), hot bat.
- James Wood (WSH) (88) vs RHP Spencer Arrighetti: an excellent bat at .155 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.286).
- Carter Jensen (KC) (88) vs RHP Christian Scott: a solid bat at .122 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.192).
- Kahlil Watson (CLE) (87) vs LHP Connor Prielipp: a solid bat at .117 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.333).
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) (86) vs LHP Connor Prielipp: a league-average bat at .107 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.333).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .164 against righties this year.
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .190 against righties this year.
- Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .144 against righties this year.
- Matt Olson (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .162 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .209 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.