Best MLB Runs Matchups — Wednesday, July 8, 2026
Top runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Gabriel Hughes. The lefty is scoring at .165 R/PA against righties this year — and .139 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 15% of his trips. And Gabriel Hughes has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Gabriel Hughes. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) (98) vs RHP Jared Jones: a strong bat at .141 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.095), hot bat.
- Matt Vierling (DET) (95) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a solid bat at .118 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.241).
- Michael Harris II (ATL) (92) vs RHP Jared Jones: a solid bat at .122 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.095), hot bat.
- James Wood (WSH) (91) vs RHP Spencer Arrighetti: an excellent bat at .159 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.286).
- Matt Olson (ATL) (91) vs RHP Jared Jones: a strong bat at .139 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.095), hot bat.
- Dillon Dingler (DET) (90) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a solid bat at .119 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.241).
- Carter Jensen (KC) (88) vs RHP Christian Scott: a solid bat at .121 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.192).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .165 against righties this year.
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .188 against righties this year.
- Matt Vierling (DET) — righty bat vs LHP, .116 against lefties this year.
- Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .146 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .214 against righties this year.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 0 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.