Best MLB Stolen Bases Matchups — Thursday, July 9, 2026
Top stolen bases spot: José Caballero
José Caballero (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Drew Rasmussen. The righty is running at .065 SB/PA against righties this year — and .036 over the last two weeks, a high-volume bat that turns into a stolen base in about 4% of his trips. He's hitting in a spot worth about 3.8 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 4 career PA against Drew Rasmussen, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Randy Arozarena (SEA) (97) vs RHP Janson Junk: an active bat at .027.
- Victor Robles (SEA) (75) vs RHP Janson Junk: an active bat at .026, due to bounce back.
- Jasson Domínguez (NYY) (74) vs RHP Drew Rasmussen: an active bat at .023.
- Jake Mangum (PIT) (74) vs RHP Bryce Elder: a high-volume bat at .032.
- Brayan Rocchio (CLE) (72) vs RHP Bailey Ober: an active bat at .021.
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (71) vs RHP the starter: an active bat at .025.
- Josh Naylor (SEA) (68) vs RHP Janson Junk: an active bat at .020.
Platoon edges to target
- Jasson Domínguez (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .053 against righties this year.
- Jake Mangum (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .078 against righties this year.
- Brayan Rocchio (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .039 against righties this year.
- Josh Naylor (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .037 against righties this year.
- Bryson Stott (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .050 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
234 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these stolen bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's stolen bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.