Best MLB Stolen Bases Matchups — Wednesday, July 8, 2026
Top stolen bases spot: Randy Arozarena
Randy Arozarena (SEA) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tyler Phillips. The righty is running at .056 SB/PA against righties this year — and .000 over the last two weeks, an active bat that turns into a stolen base in about 3% of his trips. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 4 career PA against Tyler Phillips, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Nasim Nuñez (WSH) (90) vs RHP Spencer Arrighetti: a high-volume bat at .038.
- Jake Mangum (PIT) (77) vs RHP Grant Holmes: a high-volume bat at .032.
- Victor Robles (SEA) (77) vs RHP Tyler Phillips: an active bat at .026.
- CJ Abrams (WSH) (73) vs RHP Spencer Arrighetti: an active bat at .026.
- Bryson Stott (PHI) (72) vs RHP Chase Burns: an active bat at .025.
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (72) vs RHP Davis Martin: an active bat at .024, hot bat.
- Trea Turner (PHI) (72) vs RHP Chase Burns: an active bat at .019.
Platoon edges to target
- Nasim Nuñez (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .110 against righties this year.
- Jake Mangum (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .079 against righties this year.
- CJ Abrams (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .045 against righties this year.
- Bryson Stott (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .050 against righties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .069 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these stolen bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's stolen bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.