Best MLB Stolen Bases Matchups — Tuesday, July 7, 2026
Top stolen bases spot: Trea Turner
Trea Turner (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Andrew Abbott. The righty is running at .078 SB/PA against lefties this year — and .000 over the last two weeks, an active bat that turns into a stolen base in about 3% of his trips. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .200 in 15 career PA against Andrew Abbott, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- José Caballero (NYY) (91) vs LHP Ian Seymour: an active bat at .029.
- Nasim Nuñez (WSH) (83) vs RHP Tatsuya Imai: a high-volume bat at .037.
- David Hamilton (MIL) (80) vs RHP the starter: a high-volume bat at .037.
- David Hamilton (MIL) (80) vs RHP the starter: a high-volume bat at .037.
- Chandler Simpson (TB) (71) vs RHP Will Warren: a high-volume bat at .040, hot bat.
- CJ Abrams (WSH) (69) vs RHP Tatsuya Imai: an active bat at .025.
- Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) (67) vs RHP the starter: a high-volume bat at .036.
Platoon edges to target
- Trea Turner (PHI) — righty bat vs LHP, .078 against lefties this year.
- José Caballero (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .087 against lefties this year.
- Nasim Nuñez (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .107 against righties this year.
- Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .080 against righties this year.
- CJ Abrams (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .042 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
288 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these stolen bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's stolen bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.