Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Wednesday, July 8, 2026
Top home runs spot: Juan Soto
Juan Soto (NYM) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Steven Cruz. The lefty is going deep on .079 HR/PA against righties this year — and .091 over the last two weeks, elite bat that turns into a home run in about 7% of his trips. And Steven Cruz has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 1 career PA against Steven Cruz, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (99) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: big-time bat at .061 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (90) vs RHP Chase Burns: elite bat at .069 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.061).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (85) vs RHP Troy Melton: big-time bat at .057 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.045), due to bounce back.
- Nelson Velázquez (STL) (77) vs LHP Kyle Harrison: big-time bat at .058 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.037).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (76) vs RHP Grant Holmes: big-time bat at .057 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.042), hot bat.
- Matt Olson (ATL) (76) vs RHP Jared Jones: big-time bat at .055 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Mickey Moniak (COL) (73) vs RHP Roki Sasaki: big-time bat at .060 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.167).
Platoon edges to target
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .079 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .048 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .083 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .052 against righties this year.
- Nelson Velázquez (STL) — righty bat vs LHP, .087 against lefties this year.
How it played out
1 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Juan Soto finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.