Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Wednesday, July 8, 2026
Top home runs spot: Juan Soto
Juan Soto (NYM) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Steven Cruz. The lefty is going deep on .075 HR/PA against righties this year — and .067 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 6% of his trips. And Steven Cruz has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 1 career PA against Steven Cruz, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (97) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: big-time bat at .060 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (96) vs RHP Chase Burns: elite bat at .069 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.061).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (95) vs RHP Troy Melton: big-time bat at .058 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.045), due to bounce back.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (77) vs LHP Foster Griffin: big-time bat at .059 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.050).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (76) vs RHP Gerrit Cole: elite bat at .070 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (73) vs RHP Roki Sasaki: elite bat at .065 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.077).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (72) vs RHP Grant Holmes: big-time bat at .057 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.032), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .075 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .045 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .083 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .053 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .063 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.