Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Friday, April 3, 2026
Top home runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Miles Mikolas. The lefty is going deep on .000 HR/PA against righties this year — and .000 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Miles Mikolas has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Miles Mikolas too — .500 across 14 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Aaron Judge (NYY) (89) vs RHP Eury Pérez: real bat at .047 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.083), due to bounce back.
- Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) (82) vs RHP Eury Pérez: real bat at .046 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.083), hot bat.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (79) vs RHP Cristian Javier: real bat at .043 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (74) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: real bat at .046 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (73) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: real bat at .048 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.067).
- Corey Seager (TEX) (72) vs RHP Brady Singer: real bat at .045 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) (72) vs LHP Reid Detmers: real bat at .047 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .000 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .000 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .231 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .182 against righties this year.
- Corey Seager (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .214 against righties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 1 home run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.