Best MLB Hits Matchups — Friday, April 17, 2026
Top hits spot: Chandler Simpson
Chandler Simpson (TB) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Bubba Chandler. The lefty is hitting .327 H/PA against righties this year — and .273 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 27% of his trips. And Bubba Chandler has been vulnerable to righties lately — .267 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Bubba Chandler too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Willson Contreras (BOS) (92) vs RHP Casey Mize: a strong bat at .255 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.421).
- Matt Olson (ATL) (91) vs RHP Taijuan Walker: a strong bat at .258 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.321), hot bat.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (90) vs RHP Taijuan Walker: a strong bat at .259 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.321).
- Jordan Walker (STL) (90) vs RHP Peter Lambert: a strong bat at .268 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) (88) vs RHP Davis Martin: a strong bat at .269 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.300).
- Steven Kwan (CLE) (87) vs RHP Chris Bassitt: a strong bat at .250 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.368).
- Nico Hoerner (CHC) (87) vs RHP Kodai Senga: a solid bat at .248 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.263).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Tanner Bibee has been getting tattooed by righties — .299 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Taylor Ward (BAL), Pete Alonso (BAL), and Gunnar Henderson (BAL).
- RHP Janson Junk has been getting tattooed by righties — .296 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Sal Frelick (MIL), Brice Turang (MIL), and William Contreras (MIL).
- RHP Casey Mize has been vulnerable to righties — .290 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Willson Contreras (BOS), Trevor Story (BOS), and Wilyer Abreu (BOS).
- RHP Chris Bassitt has been vulnerable to righties — .276 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Steven Kwan (CLE), Kyle Manzardo (CLE), and George Valera (CLE).
Platoon edges to target
- Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .327 against righties this year.
- Matt Olson (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .273 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .276 against righties this year.
- Steven Kwan (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .241 against righties this year.
- Edouard Julien (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .239 against righties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Will Smith (LAD) at 85.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Matt Olson (ATL), Jordan Walker (STL), Will Smith (LAD), Alex Bregman (CHC), Yandy Díaz (TB), and CJ Abrams (WSH). Cold but due to bounce back: Chandler Simpson (TB), Edouard Julien (COL), Tommy Pham (NYM), Andy Ibáñez (ATH), and Bryan Reynolds (PIT).
How it played out
8 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Chandler Simpson finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.