Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Friday, April 17, 2026
Top home runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tomoyuki Sugano. The lefty is going deep on .054 HR/PA against righties this year — and .077 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Tomoyuki Sugano has been homer-prone to righties lately — .045 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Tomoyuki Sugano too — .625 across 8 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, though the weather fights it.
The rest of the top of the board
- Aaron Judge (NYY) (99) vs RHP Michael Wacha: big-time bat at .052 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Mike Trout (LAA) (72) vs RHP Matt Waldron: real bat at .045 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (71) vs RHP Nick Martinez: real bat at .047 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.077).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (62) vs RHP Davis Martin: real bat at .042 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.035).
- Corey Seager (TEX) (61) vs RHP Logan Gilbert: real bat at .044 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (59) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: real bat at .046 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.035).
- Jackson Merrill (SD) (55) vs RHP José Soriano: solid bat at .038 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.037), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .054 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .115 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .018 against righties this year.
- Corey Seager (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .088 against righties this year.
- Jackson Merrill (SD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .048 against righties this year.
How it played out
0 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.