Best MLB Hits Matchups — Sunday, April 12, 2026
Top hits spot: Andy Pages
Andy Pages (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Jacob deGrom. The righty is hitting .452 H/PA against righties this year — and .486 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a hit in about 33% of his trips. And Jacob deGrom has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .333 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .200 in 5 career PA against Jacob deGrom, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Chandler Simpson (TB) (92) vs RHP Cam Schlittler: an excellent bat at .294 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.240), hot bat.
- Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) (85) vs RHP Zach Pop: a strong bat at .259 into an arm tough on the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Brandon Nimmo (TEX) (80) vs RHP Roki Sasaki: a strong bat at .269 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.235).
- Brendan Donovan (SEA) (75) vs RHP Cody Bolton: a strong bat at .263 into an arm tough on the same side (.167).
- James Wood (WSH) (74) vs RHP Brandon Woodruff: a solid bat at .249 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250), hot bat.
- William Contreras (MIL) (72) vs RHP Zack Littell: a solid bat at .247 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.261), hot bat.
- Christian Walker (HOU) (72) vs RHP Logan Gilbert: an excellent bat at .271 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.278), due to bounce back.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Adrian Houser has been vulnerable to righties — .286 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Taylor Ward (BAL), and Leody Taveras (BAL).
- RHP Grant Taylor has been vulnerable to righties — .268 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Maikel Garcia (KC), Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), and Salvador Perez (KC).
- RHP Jacob deGrom has been giving up plenty to righties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Andy Pages (LAD), Kyle Tucker (LAD), and Shohei Ohtani (LAD).
Platoon edges to target
- Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .359 against righties this year.
- Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .333 against righties this year.
- Brandon Nimmo (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .311 against righties this year.
- Brendan Donovan (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .296 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .256 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Chandler Simpson (TB), Ildemaro Vargas (AZ), James Wood (WSH), William Contreras (MIL), Gunnar Henderson (BAL), and Oneil Cruz (PIT). Cold but due to bounce back: Christian Walker (HOU), Alec Burleson (STL), Miguel Vargas (CWS), Gary Sánchez (MIL), and Mark Vientos (NYM).
How it played out
8 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Andy Pages finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.