Best MLB Hits Matchups — Tuesday, April 14, 2026
Top hits spot: Ildemaro Vargas
Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Trevor Rogers. The righty is hitting .438 H/PA against lefties this year — and .438 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 29% of his trips. And Trevor Rogers has been vulnerable to lefties lately — .270 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .182 in 11 career PA against Trevor Rogers, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) (88) vs LHP Trevor Rogers: an excellent bat at .293 into an arm tough on the same side (.167).
- Jose Altuve (HOU) (87) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .263 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.364).
- Oneil Cruz (PIT) (82) vs LHP PJ Poulin: an excellent bat at .272 into an arm tough on the same side (.154), hot bat.
- Maikel Garcia (KC) (81) vs LHP Framber Valdez: an excellent bat at .280 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.222).
- Carlos Correa (HOU) (79) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .269 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.364), hot bat.
- Nico Hoerner (CHC) (75) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a strong bat at .254 into an arm tough on the same side (.174).
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (70) vs LHP Riley Martin: a solid bat at .244 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Michael Lorenzen has been vulnerable to righties — .286 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jose Altuve (HOU), Carlos Correa (HOU), and Christian Walker (HOU).
- RHP Brady Singer has been vulnerable to righties — .282 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (SF), Willy Adames (SF), and Matt Chapman (SF).
Platoon edges to target
- Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .438 against lefties this year.
- Maikel Garcia (KC) — righty bat vs LHP, .412 against lefties this year.
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .250 against righties this year.
- Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) — righty bat vs LHP, .294 against lefties this year.
- Yandy Díaz (TB) — righty bat vs LHP, .333 against lefties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Ildemaro Vargas (AZ), Oneil Cruz (PIT), Carlos Correa (HOU), Bryce Harper (PHI), Gunnar Henderson (BAL), and Colt Keith (DET). Cold but due to bounce back: Christian Walker (HOU), Joey Wiemer (WSH), Sal Frelick (MIL), Yordan Alvarez (HOU), and Geraldo Perdomo (AZ).
How it played out
6 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Ildemaro Vargas finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.