Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Sunday, July 19, 2026
Top rbis spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Ryan Yarbrough. The lefty is driving in runs at .161 RBI/PA against lefties this year — and .538 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a RBI in about 16% of his trips. And Ryan Yarbrough has been stingy with runs against lefties lately — .000 RBIs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .286 in 14 career PA against Ryan Yarbrough. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Vaughn Grissom (LAA) (100) vs RHP Casey Mize: an elite bat at .175 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.227).
- Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) (100) vs LHP Joey Cantillo: an elite bat at .260 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.073), hot bat.
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) (100) vs LHP Foster Griffin: an elite bat at .174 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.045).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (95) vs RHP Brandon Young: an excellent bat at .159 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.192), hot bat.
- Riley Greene (DET) (93) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: an excellent bat at .156 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.080).
- Sal Stewart (CIN) (92) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: an excellent bat at .152 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.091).
- Eugenio Suárez (CIN) (90) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: an elite bat at .170 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.091).
Platoon edges to target
- Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) — righty bat vs LHP, .417 against lefties this year.
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .197 against lefties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .174 against righties this year.
- Riley Greene (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .125 against righties this year.
- Nelson Velázquez (STL) — righty bat vs LHP, .204 against lefties this year.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 rbis matchups landed at least one RBI. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 0 RBIs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays