Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Friday, July 17, 2026
Top rbis spot: Cal Raleigh
Cal Raleigh (SEA) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Landen Roupp. The lefty is driving in runs at .120 RBI/PA against righties this year — and .182 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a RBI in about 15% of his trips. And Landen Roupp has been stingy with runs against righties lately — .000 RBIs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.3 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 1 career PA against Landen Roupp, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (100) vs RHP Peter Lambert: an elite bat at .165 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.048).
- Jake Burger (TEX) (100) vs LHP Chris Sale: an elite bat at .193 into an arm giving up runs to the same side (.120), due to bounce back.
- Jordan Walker (STL) (100) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: an elite bat at .169 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.043), hot bat.
- Eugenio Suárez (CIN) (100) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: an elite bat at .168 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (99) vs RHP Cal Quantrill: an elite bat at .165 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.158).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (98) vs RHP Dean Kremer: an excellent bat at .156 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.300).
- Manny Machado (SD) (97) vs RHP Seth Lugo: an elite bat at .164 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .120 against righties this year.
- Jake Burger (TEX) — righty bat vs LHP, .225 against lefties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .156 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .171 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .158 against righties this year.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 rbis matchups landed at least one RBI. Top play Cal Raleigh finished with 0 RBIs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays