Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Tuesday, April 14, 2026
Top home runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Nolan McLean. The lefty is going deep on .058 HR/PA against righties this year — and .071 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Nolan McLean has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Nolan McLean, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Aaron Judge (NYY) (77) vs LHP Reid Detmers: big-time bat at .052 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) (72) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: real bat at .040 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) (58) vs LHP MacKenzie Gore: real bat at .044 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.056), hot bat.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (56) vs LHP Riley Martin: real bat at .041 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (51) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: real bat at .040 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.100), due to bounce back.
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (51) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: solid bat at .040 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Mickey Moniak (COL) (50) vs RHP Spencer Arrighetti: real bat at .046 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .058 against righties this year.
- Aaron Judge (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .188 against lefties this year.
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .064 against righties this year.
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .167 against lefties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .061 against righties this year.
How it played out
0 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.