Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Friday, July 10, 2026
Top rbis spot: Kody Clemens
Kody Clemens (MIN) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Grayson Rodriguez. The lefty is driving in runs at .149 RBI/PA against righties this year — and .309 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a RBI in about 16% of his trips. And Grayson Rodriguez has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Grayson Rodriguez. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Vaughn Grissom (LAA) (99) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: an elite bat at .172 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.136).
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (97) vs LHP Eduardo Rodriguez: an elite bat at .161 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.091).
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (93) vs RHP Luinder Avila: an elite bat at .172 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.222).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (92) vs RHP Luis Castillo: an elite bat at .167 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.083).
- Riley Greene (DET) (92) vs RHP Aaron Nola: an excellent bat at .160 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.206).
- Manny Machado (SD) (91) vs RHP Shane Bieber: an excellent bat at .156 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.375).
- Rafael Devers (SF) (90) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: an excellent bat at .157 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.143).
Platoon edges to target
- Kody Clemens (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .149 against righties this year.
- Riley Greene (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .127 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .152 against righties this year.
- Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .147 against righties this year.
- Samuel Basallo (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .183 against righties this year.
How it played out
6 of the top 10 rbis matchups landed at least one RBI. Top play Kody Clemens finished with 1 RBI. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays