Best MLB Runs Matchups — Friday, July 17, 2026
Top runs spot: Trent Grisham
Trent Grisham (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Roki Sasaki. The lefty is scoring at .167 R/PA against righties this year — and .250 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 14% of his trips. And Roki Sasaki has been getting lit up by righties lately — .250 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Roki Sasaki. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) (100) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: a strong bat at .148 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.077), due to bounce back.
- Jackson Merrill (SD) (99) vs RHP Seth Lugo: a solid bat at .129 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.344).
- Ben Rice (NYY) (95) vs RHP Roki Sasaki: a strong bat at .143 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.250), hot bat.
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) (94) vs RHP Cal Quantrill: a strong bat at .141 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.158).
- James Wood (WSH) (93) vs LHP Gage Jump: a strong bat at .131 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.091).
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (91) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: a solid bat at .128 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (90) vs RHP Cal Quantrill: a solid bat at .127 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.158).
Platoon edges to target
- Trent Grisham (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .167 against righties this year.
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .175 against righties this year.
- Jackson Merrill (SD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .122 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .187 against righties this year.
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .185 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
27 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.