Best MLB Runs Matchups — Saturday, July 18, 2026
Top runs spot: James Wood
James Wood (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP J.T. Ginn. The lefty is scoring at .218 R/PA against righties this year — and .314 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a run in about 17% of his trips. And J.T. Ginn has been getting lit up by righties lately — .300 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against J.T. Ginn. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Miguel Vargas (CWS) (91) vs RHP Shane Bieber: a strong bat at .138 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.318).
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (87) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a solid bat at .128 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) (81) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: a solid bat at .127 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.067), due to bounce back.
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) (79) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: a strong bat at .148 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) (78) vs RHP Spencer Arrighetti: a strong bat at .135 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.296).
- Randy Arozarena (SEA) (78) vs RHP Logan Webb: a strong bat at .138 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.269).
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) (78) vs RHP J.T. Ginn: a strong bat at .136 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.300).
Platoon edges to target
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .218 against righties this year.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .150 against righties this year.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .151 against righties this year.
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .175 against righties this year.
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .142 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.