Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Saturday, July 18, 2026
Top home runs spot: Esmerlyn Valdez
Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Logan Allen. The righty is going deep on .147 HR/PA against lefties this year — and .143 over the last two weeks, elite bat that turns into a home run in about 8% of his trips. And Logan Allen has been thin against lefties lately. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.3 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Logan Allen. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (92) vs RHP Shane Bieber: elite bat at .072 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.048).
- Ben Rice (NYY) (92) vs RHP Emmet Sheehan: big-time bat at .062 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- James Wood (WSH) (80) vs RHP J.T. Ginn: big-time bat at .055 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.100).
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (74) vs LHP Ryan Weathers: big-time bat at .061 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Mickey Moniak (COL) (67) vs RHP Rhett Lowder: big-time bat at .057 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.053), due to bounce back.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (66) vs LHP Trevor Rogers: big-time bat at .057 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (65) vs RHP Rhett Lowder: big-time bat at .060 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) — righty bat vs LHP, .147 against lefties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .089 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .082 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .066 against righties this year.
- Mickey Moniak (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .070 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.