Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Friday, July 17, 2026
Top home runs spot: Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Dean Kremer. The lefty is going deep on .074 HR/PA against righties this year — and .172 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 6% of his trips. And Dean Kremer has been getting taken deep by righties lately — .300 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Dean Kremer too — .300 across 10 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Ben Rice (NYY) (93) vs RHP Roki Sasaki: big-time bat at .062 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.125), hot bat.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (93) vs RHP Gerrit Cole: big-time bat at .061 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.038).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (90) vs RHP Spencer Miles: elite bat at .072 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (70) vs RHP Brady Singer: big-time bat at .060 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Mickey Moniak (COL) (69) vs RHP Brady Singer: big-time bat at .057 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.031).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (67) vs RHP Gavin Williams: big-time bat at .055 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Justin Foscue (TEX) (67) vs LHP Chris Sale: big-time bat at .052 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.080).
Platoon edges to target
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .074 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .082 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .046 against righties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .089 against righties this year.
- Mickey Moniak (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .070 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
27 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.