Best MLB Stolen Bases Matchups — Friday, July 17, 2026
Top stolen bases spot: Jake Mangum
Jake Mangum (PIT) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Gavin Williams. The lefty is running at .078 SB/PA against righties this year — and .097 over the last two weeks, a high-volume bat that turns into a stolen base in about 3% of his trips. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Gavin Williams too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (94) vs RHP Griffin Jax: an active bat at .023.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (91) vs RHP Bailey Ober: a high-volume bat at .030.
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (87) vs RHP Brady Singer: an active bat at .024.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) (87) vs RHP Spencer Miles: an active bat at .022.
- Brice Turang (MIL) (84) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: an active bat at .023.
- Randy Arozarena (SEA) (80) vs RHP Landen Roupp: an active bat at .026.
- Caleb Durbin (BOS) (75) vs RHP Griffin Jax: an active bat at .019.
Platoon edges to target
- Jake Mangum (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .078 against righties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .065 against righties this year.
- Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .047 against righties this year.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .050 against righties this year.
- Brice Turang (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .033 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
27 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How it played out
1 of the top 10 stolen bases matchups landed at least one stolen base. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these stolen bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's stolen bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.