Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Wednesday, April 1, 2026
Top home runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Gavin Williams. The lefty is going deep on .000 HR/PA against righties this year — and .000 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Gavin Williams has been getting taken deep by righties lately — .059 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .143 in 7 career PA against Gavin Williams, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Aaron Judge (NYY) (82) vs RHP George Kirby: real bat at .047 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (76) vs LHP Garrett Crochet: real bat at .040 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Ketel Marte (AZ) (66) vs LHP Tarik Skubal: real bat at .042 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) (65) vs RHP Nathan Eovaldi: solid bat at .037 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.083).
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) (64) vs LHP Chris Sale: real bat at .042 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (61) vs RHP Kevin Gausman: solid bat at .039 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.100), hot bat.
- Rafael Devers (SF) (59) vs RHP Nick Pivetta: solid bat at .040 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .000 against righties this year.
- Ketel Marte (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .000 against lefties this year.
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .056 against righties this year.
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .143 against lefties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .000 against righties this year.
How it played out
2 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.