Best MLB Hits Matchups — Friday, July 17, 2026
Top hits spot: Jake McCarthy
Jake McCarthy (COL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Brady Singer. The lefty is hitting .252 H/PA against righties this year — and .308 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 26% of his trips. And Brady Singer has been tough on righties lately — .188 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 6 career PA against Brady Singer, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a hitter's park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- TJ Rumfield (COL) (100) vs RHP Brady Singer: an excellent bat at .274 into an arm tough on the same side (.188), hitter's park, due to bounce back.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (100) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: a solid bat at .235 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Jacob Wilson (ATH) (99) vs RHP Cade Cavalli: a strong bat at .269 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.300).
- Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (ATH) (97) vs RHP Cade Cavalli: an elite bat at .301 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.300).
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (97) vs RHP Seth Lugo: a solid bat at .243 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.364), due to bounce back.
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) (96) vs RHP Colin Rea: a solid bat at .248 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.286).
- Mickey Moniak (COL) (95) vs RHP Brady Singer: a strong bat at .259 into an arm tough on the same side (.188), hitter's park.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Dean Kremer has been vulnerable to righties — .266 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Jeremy Peña (HOU), and Isaac Paredes (HOU).
- RHP Mason Englert has been vulnerable to righties — .262 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Anthony Seigler (BOS), and Willson Contreras (BOS).
- RHP Colin Rea has been vulnerable to righties — .261 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Trevor Larnach (MIN), Ryan Jeffers (MIN), and Kody Clemens (MIN).
Platoon edges to target
- Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .252 against righties this year.
- TJ Rumfield (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .267 against righties this year.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .227 against righties this year.
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .266 against righties this year.
- Mickey Moniak (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .270 against righties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Jake McCarthy (COL) at 100.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: JJ Bleday (CIN), Brayan Rocchio (CLE), Ryan Jeffers (MIN), Wyatt Langford (TEX), Ernie Clement (TOR), and Jonathan Aranda (TB). Cold but due to bounce back: TJ Rumfield (COL), Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Otto Lopez (MIA), Dylan Crews (WSH), and Kody Clemens (MIN).
Lineup watch
27 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.