Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Saturday, March 28, 2026
Top home runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Eduardo Rodriguez. The lefty is going deep on — HR/PA against lefties this year, real bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Eduardo Rodriguez has been thin against lefties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .241 in 29 career PA against Eduardo Rodriguez. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Aaron Judge (NYY) (93) vs RHP Tyler Mahle: real bat at .047 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Corey Seager (TEX) (91) vs RHP Aaron Nola: real bat at .048 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (90) vs RHP Dylan Cease: real bat at .044 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) (80) vs RHP Tyler Mahle: real bat at .048 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) (79) vs LHP Joey Cantillo: real bat at .048 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Teoscar Hernández (LAD) (79) vs LHP Eduardo Rodriguez: real bat at .045 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Mike Trout (LAA) (79) vs RHP Cristian Javier: real bat at .044 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Platoon edges to target
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .000 against righties this year.
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) — righty bat vs LHP, .000 against lefties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .000 against righties this year.
- Ketel Marte (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .143 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .000 against righties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.